Robo.cash predicts 12.6 per cent average P2P yield rate in 2023
European peer-to-peer lending platform Robo.cash has forecast that the average yield rate of P2P fixed income instruments in Europe this year may reach 12.6 per cent, returning to 2017-2018 levels.
The firm analysed fixed income instruments using the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return Index (BGATRI) and concluded that due to lower yields on bonds and bank deposits, P2P may prove more profitable.
“Deposit rates directly depend on the key rate of the central bank, which makes them, of course, a low-risk asset, but potentially less profitable compared to P2P,” the firm said in a blog on the potential of fixed income instruments in 2023.
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“The same applies to bonds, which could lose their competition with P2P, at least in Europe”, it added.
The firm’s analysis found that deposit rates began to rise only in the second half of 2022, despite rapid inflation since mid-2020.
The current P2P market average rate of return (10.5 per cent) has exceeded the overall average for the last four years (10.4 per cent), which Robo.cash said suggests the market is gradually recovering.
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Robo.cash said the BGATRI bond index also began to grow in the second half of 2022 after the growth of the key rates of the central nank, which confirms the theoretical aspects of the monetary policy of the central bank.
“It is noticeable that average P2P rates increased as the key rates of the central bank grew”, the firm said.
“However, there is no theoretically substantiated connection here. Most likely, this is a reaction to the growth of profitability in assets that are competitive for P2P with a lower amount of risk.”
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